A new dataset of predicted European tree distributions under two climate change scenarios promises to improve the data available for the conservation of forest genetic resources in the core network of genetic conservation units (GCUs) and the continent as a whole. The EU-Trees4F initiative, coordinated by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and co-funded by FORGENIUS, offers the most detailed model to date of how the ranges of 67 target tree species will change between now and 2095.
The projections combine information from EU-Forest, a dataset of existing species distribution maps, with bioclimatic parameters from regional climate models and soil characteristics (organic matter and pH) to indicate areas that will become unsuitable for the individual tree species, areas that are unlikely to change the occurrence of the species, and areas that will become more suitable under future climatic conditions. The authors point out that the models offer useful guidance for such topics as forestry, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and bio-economy.
Previous efforts to model future distributions have focussed on a relatively small number of species that are currently of economic importance. This poses two problems. First, these models exclude species that might be important for multiple aspects of ecosystem services. Secondly, species diversity (in addition to genetic diversity) is an important component of resilience to the kinds of disturbances that accompany climate change. By including 67 tree species, EU-Trees4F ensures that useful data will be available to manage for ecosystem services and conservation in addition to bio-economy.
At the same time, the new model takes advantage of climate information with better spatial resolution than previous models, 10 km rather than downscaled from 100 km.
The key innovation of this dataset is that the underlying model specifically includes details of different colonisation options. Previous models have ignored how species might move into newly suitable areas. EU-Trees4F considers both the suitability of a location for a species and also a version that limits dispersal based on models of future land use and assisted migration of species. The authors say that “these two pieces of information provide a useful tool to simulate management scenarios regarding the future of European forests”. Taking future land-use into account helps to identify locations and species for which assisted migration offers a good option to secure productive and resilient forest ecosystems.
For EUFORGEN, one advantage of this FORGENIUS-backed research is that the outputs will find their way into the enhanced European Information System on Forest Genetic Resources (EUFGIS), as recommended by the Forest Genetic Resources Strategy for Europe. An expanded EUFGIS that brings together data from remote sensing, phenotypic and genotypic characterisation and production information will be of great value for many future decisions in forest management. The new dataset will thus improve the management of existing GCUs for dynamic conservation while also indicating how the core GCU network might need to be enlarged to encompass forest genetic resources for future needs.
An additional high-level use of the dataset would be to support evidence-backed policy making, especially with regard to the European Green Deal, the EU Biodiversity strategy, the EU Bio-Economy strategy and the new EU Forest Strategy.
Climate change will substantially alter environmental suitability for most European trees species by the end of the century. These changes will result in mismatches between species’ niches and the local climatic conditions. EU-Trees4F provides insights that will help to limit the erosion of current species ranges and promote colonisation of newly suitable areas, improving the resilience of European forests.
Read the publication here.